When it comes to the movement of people and things, the last five years have seen more transformation than the previous fifty. The next ten promise to profoundly accelerate that change. This SEA transition will upend how we traditionally plan, design, operate, finance, and manage our transport and rights of way. We are at the beginning phases of the sunsetting of our traditional transport system and the dawning of the new active, shared, electric and automated transition. It will not happen everywhere at once, but it will eventually reach every corner of the planet.

The pandemic has accelerated pieces of the transition in what would have normally taken months or years in a matter of weeks. There is no looking back, no going back to normal as these urban transport trends over the next ten years are unstoppable:

• Digitization: connecting every transport data set and network to each other.
• Governance platforms: managing and prioritizing rights of way for more efficient modes and pricing each trip based on time, location, vehicle size, emissions, and trip purpose.
• Mobility as a service: with routing, booking, payment, unlocking, gamification, and trading, then shifting into Lifestyle as a service being incorporated into omni-platform offerings.
• Shared e-mobility: bicycle, kick-scooter, moped, cargo-bike, car, van, bus, train, truck, ferry, urban aviation systems to scale in urban areas.
• E-commerce led electrification: first and last-mile delivery fleets and hubs, the phased introduction of a middle mile, neighborhood ground robots, and suburban aerial drones.
• Automated technology: applied to various transport form factors from moving people and goods on the ground, sea, and air and performing the tasks in agriculture, mining, construction, and various municipal support services e.g: waste management.

The future of mobility is being pushed forward by rapidly shifting demographics, accelerated digitization and the system shock of a post Covid world. These forces are creating a wholesale change in the way we view ourselves, our lifestyles, workplaces, spaces, and travel needs. Ubiquitous connectivity allows us to connect, learn, play and work from anywhere and everywhere, all the time. Our journey will shift to be valued as an experience to connect with our family, friends, and surroundings, rather than a means to get from A to B. Mobility will become the background enabling tool that helps connect us to the precious moments in our lives.

The transitional digital technologies such as social media, predictive AI, enhanced productivity and emerging wellness tools are bringing together the many disparate elements of our lifestyles, and we are entering a new phase of deep algorithmic interconnectedness to curate lifestyles as a service.

Governments of all types have a short window to realign their focus from their current silos today to the interconnected and performance based governance platforms of tomorrow. Their role is to set right of way guardrails to ensure everyone has safe, secure and fair access to the rights of way ensuring outcomes that are equitable, sustainable and resilient.

The great SEA Change in transport is coming.
Are you prepared?

Timothy Papandreou
Founder, Emerging Transport Advisors
Emerging Transport Advisors provides investors, companies, governments and institutions clarity and guidance on how to best position themselves for the great SEA (shared, electric, automated) change coming to the transport system.